UPDATE 19.20; UPDATE 9.08.08, 15.20; 10 august, 12.20; UPDATE 13 august
aici voi plasa idei incoerente…

iata blogul meu din osetia de sud din aprilie (partea 1 si partea 2). dpdv militar e relativ usor sa capturezi tskhinvali. acesta este prins ca intr-un cleste de catre georgieni. satul ergneti si restul goergiri (la sud) si tamarasheni (la nord) – sate controlate de georgieni. distanta dintre ergneti si tamarasheni prin tskhinvali este de vreo 7-10 km. deci tskhinvali il traversezi cu masina in mai putin de 10. ergneti e la 500 m de tskhinvali, iar tamarasheni e la 2 metri. adica intre doua case e un indicator ca se termina tskhinvali si incepe tamaraseni. in est si vest sunt doua dealuri, unul controlat de georgieni de vreo 2 saptamani. insa nu prea vad cum vor recupera georgienii restul (partea de nord a) osetiei de sud, in special java, unde sunt principalele forte militare osetine si probabil rusesti.

doua pagini web: www.cominf.org si www.civil.ge. un reportaj ceva mai vechi dar util ca sa va dati seama cum arata osetia de sud – euronews

iata un articol in international herald tribune care ma citeaza. well, nu speculam cu olimpiadele, dar spuneam ca e un anumit simbolism in acest caz care sugereaza ca pregatirile pentru olimpiada din sochi nu pot avea loc fara a fi umbrite de probleme de securitate.

UPDATE: 9 august, 15.20: sint la sky news. urmeaza sa mai comentez cateva ori live. pana acum gasiti mai jos cateva citate distribuite de ecfr. a doua zi incerc sa sun in georgia fara succes. sms-urile ajung. mobilizarea generala in georgia inseamna ca mai multi prieteni pot ajunge in armata in zona de conflict. districtul avlobari in tbilisi (unde am stat acum doua saptamani) este evacuat.

LONDON – Following the sudden escalation of conflict in the South Caucasus, experts of the European Council on Foreign Relations have said the following:

“For the last 3 years, the European Union had the opportunity to engage with the two sides but it seems to have squandered this opportunity,” said Nicu Popescu, ECFR’s expert on the Caucasus, who has recently returned from an extensive research trip to Georgia. “The region could now easily turn into the “Balkans of the 21st century.”

“Clearly, Russian ‘peacekeepers’ in the region are no longer peacekeepers. The EU should put together an assessment mission – including military experts – and seriously consider sending in a European peacekeeping force, similarly to the one it sent to Lebanon two years ago,” he said.

“This is more than a war in Europe’s backyard. It is a war in Europe itself – the first since Kosovo in 1999 – with potentially dire consequences for all parties involved,” said Andrew Wilson, senior policy fellow at ECFR. “Many Western governments have put their heads in the sand, and the wrong signals were sent to the two sides. The Georgians felt isolated, and in the ensuing vacuum, Georgian President Saakashvili thought he had to act on his own.”

Contact ECFR

ECFR’s London-based experts are available for comment and interviews.

Nicu Popescu is a Policy Fellow at ECFR, specialising in secessionist conflicts in the post-soviet space, EU relations with Russia, Moldova and the South Caucasus. He has recently returned from an extensive research trip in the South Caucasus. He is also co-author of ECFR’s policy paper “A power audit of EU-Russia relations”. Nicu Popescu can be reached on nicu.popescu@ecfr.eu, mobile: 4477 9531 2467.

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UPDATE 10 august
pentru cei interesati iata cateva publicatii de-ale mele despre conflictele din georgia.

“Internationalizing the Georgia-Abkhazia Conflict Resolution Process: Why a Greater European Role is Needed“, GMF Policy Brief; Ron Asmus, Svante E. Cornell, Antje Herrberg, and Nicu Popescu, June 2008.

“Europe’s Unrecognised Neighbours: The EU in Abkhazia and South Ossetia“, CEPS Working Document 260, 15 March 2007, Brussels.

“Абхазия и Южная Осетия: независимость или выживание?” (Abkhazia and South Ossetia : independence or survival?), in Pro et Contra Vol. 10, Nr. 5-6 (34), 2006, Carnegie Moscow Center, pp. 40-52.

“Outsourcing De Facto Statehood: Russia and the Secessionist Entities in Georgia and Moldova“, CEPS Policy Brief 109, 20 July 2006.

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UPDATE 10 august
aveam si eu impresia ca georgienii pierd razboiul informationmal, lansand actiunile militare. dar cred ca bombardamentele rusesti o oraselor georgiene par sa schi,mbe situatia. tonul in occident devine din ce in ce mai critic fata de rusia. ministrul suedez de externe carl bildt (ce-i drept un bun prieten cu misha) compara actiunile ruse cu germania nazista. pana si tonul frantei, care detine presedintia UE, este destul de ferm: sprijina oferta georgiei de sistare a actiunilor militare si spune ca actiunile rusiei pot avea consecinte pentru relatiile cu UE.

UPDATE 11 august, 13.30

sambata putin a zburat din beijing in vladikavkaz sa gestioneze situatia. de ce nu a venit curios ca atunci cand s-a intamplat tragedia din beslan (la cateva zeci de km de vladikavkaz) putin

UPDATE 13 august

poza a aceluiasi magazin inainte de ostilitati si dupa. in tamarasheni, sat controlat de georgieni la cateva zeci de metri de tskhinvali.