catva timp in urma am fost la un pranz cu un ministru de externe din UE (cu inca vreo 10 jurnalisti si cercetatori). e mai bine sa prezint mai jos ideile lui, decat sa dau numele (nu le pot face pe ambele). regulile chatham house. deci iata cateva idei/citate culese din aceasta conversatie. mai adaug ca ministrul este oarecum pe centru in ce priveste atitudinile fata de rusia. nu este nici anti-rus, nici pro-rus. deci nici baltic, nici cipriot :) despre Rusia, parteneriatul estic, obama, tratatul de securitate europeana promovat de medvedev, etc.

  • 3 dates shaped the post-Cold war world. 1) fall of the Berlin wall. 2) 9/11 3) 08.08.08 (war in Georgia) and then the start of the financial crisis with the fall of Lehman Brothers.
  • There is a remarkable correlation between oil prices and Russia/Soviet foreign policy. The higher the price, the harsher the foreign policy. That’s been the case since 1973. oil was 150 USD a few months and is 60 these days.
  • EU-Russia relations – extremely asymmetrical. We are too focused on energy. That’s a huge mistake. In reality the EU economy is 15 times bigger, defence spending 7 times bigger and population is 3 times bigger (quoting the ECFR EU-Russia power audit). We are a much much bigger player than Russia.
  • ECFR published a report by Pierre Noel. Excellent study. Russian gas is only 6.5% of our energy needs.
  • Medvedev proposals: We have to listen but postpone. The OSCE is the best institution for that. Russia wants to focus exclusively on security. The Russian agenda is to 1) split the EU, 2) push NATO out, 3) keep the US at bay. 4) keep nation states as the main actors in Eur security. We need to put the discussion with Russia on a long track.
  • Financial crisis: outdated national responses to global problems.
  • Lisbon ratification: Next December Council will give Ireland some guarantees. 1) neutrality, 2) taxes, 3) one commissioner.
  • Post Georgia – a boost to EU enlargement. Only Fr and Germany against Turkey. But ultimately the case for enlargement is strengthened. Also to the Balkans, Moldova and Ukraine. No one questions that.

Q and A

  • Russian military operation in Georgia – one of the few, if not only successful Russian military operation after World War 2.
  • Russia did two simulations of a war with Georgia this summer.
  • Medvedev didn’t want that war. No president wants a war in the first 100 days.
  • Stupid, strategic mistake by Georgia to start the war. We all knew from day one how it started.
  • Clear that Russia is pushing for a sphere of influence. It was stupid of them to recognise Ab and SO following their Kosovo fetish.
  • Not convinced Medvedev is entirely irrelevant and Putin is fully in charge. Putin maybe does not want to stay, were it not for his assets.
  • Very critical of Poland- Lit on the agreement with Russia.
  • it is key is to make Russia as European as possible.
  • 3 key issues of the new EU-Russia agreement: energy, visa freedom and free trade area.
  • Ukr might join. It is a questions of 10-15 years. We recognised in septemeber that they are a European country, and read art 49 which says that any European state can apply for EU.
  • Difference Kosovo – Abk and SO. We tried to find a status for Kosovo for 8 years. Russia recognized them in a few days without even trying to discuss their status. Russia made a mess for itself. Chechnya in the future. It is their problem.
  • the second round of Geneva talks on Georgia were good.
  • The Eastern Partnership is there because we want to tone down the sphere of influence talk by Russia. I like the concept but we need more beef on the bones. so far not enough.
  • The OSCE December ministerial. Two issues: the security treaty idea + Georgia. There will also be two regional declarations – one on Moldova/Transnistria, one on Nagorno-Karabakh.
  • Russian vision of the security treaty – is drop two baskets (human rights and economics) and focus on hard security. this is not ok for us.
  • Steinmeier – very good but too preoccupied with the elections and domestic politics.
  • One journalist is asking why no one digs into the dirty business of Cyprus and Russia etc. response is “the media bang about Bulgaria and Romania as corrupt crooks, but Cyprus is under the radar screen”.
  • Obama first steps are very good. 1) close Guantanamo. 2) withdraw Iraq 2011 3) climate change 4) Hillary Clinton for Secretary of state.
  • McCain was a unipolarist. Obama is a multi-polarist. Will have a new take on EU, Brazil, China, India etc.
  • The problem is that EU will actually have to cooperate with the US. And cant hide anymore behind Bush’s failures.
  • The more Vaclav Klaus goes to Ireland to campaign against Lisbon, the better for the Lisbon Treaty.
  • The French will have an acute PPD – post-presidency depression. All former presidencies have it.
  • Ireland – the price for Lisbon is probably one commissioner per state.
  • There is no crisis of dysfunctionality in the EU. After the 2004 as a TEPSA study showed decisions are actually taken faster in the council.