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postul anterior cu Noul Machiavelli s-a bucurat de mult succes. rezultatul – mai multi doritori de a citi cartea… iata continuarea. sfaturile lui Jonathan Powell, fostul sef de cabinet al lui Tony Blair:

Victory provides a new government with political momentum. That momentum should be used to push through the most difficult and controversial measures a government intends to make as quickly as possible… A wise prime-minister would ignore the opposition and press ahead while they are strong, rather than advancing gradually and allowing resistance to build up. (more…)

am ajuns in Georgia (apropo cu companie aeriana low-cost pegasus airlines din istanbul). nu am mai fost de aproape 2 ani, dar stau doar doua zile (cateva din scrierile caucaziene anterioare: aici, aici,  Ikea and the Abkhaz Paradox, osetia de sud). din pacate nu mai reusesc sa trag o fuga pana in zona de conflict. in Tbilisi constructiile incepute acu doi ani asa si nu au mai fost terminate (un kempinski si mai nu stiu ce plaza pe rustaveli). criza economica… mari batalii interne si externe pe zona de liber schimb cu UE. guvernul are politici economice ultra-liberale (iata  o formulare a acestei positii – un fel de macel al DCFTA) si discutii interne competente, bine informate si destul de aprinse atat cu UE cat si cu mai multi economisti/societate civila pro-DCFTA. partidele politice se pozitioneaza pentru campania electorala din 2013 cand ii expira ultimul mandat de presedinte lui saakashvili. nu este exclus ca va incerca sa ramana prim-ministru, desi nu prea cred. si new yorker a scris acu vreo doua zile un material (aparent neutru, dar cam ironic) despre georgieni.

daca vreti sa va mai instritstai un pic comparati site-urile invest in georgia si site-ul miepo.

The notion of ‘friendship’ in foreign policy is an elusive one. It is often stereotypical, yet publics and policy-makers often think in terms of ‘friendly’ and ‘less friendly’ countries. The notion of ‘friendship’ also often hides pretty unfriendly policies. It is almost conventional wisdom that countries like Germany, France, Spain or Austria are ‘friendly’ to Russia, and countries like Poland or Lithuania are not. Looking at the southern neighbourhood, France, Spain and Italy are key advocates and friends of countries like Morocco, Tunisia etc. Yet, such ‘friendships’ consist of lots of underwater currents. Many ‘friendships’ in form are pretty unfriendly in substance, and they vary hugely from one policy sector to another.

Sometimes, countries are ‘friendly’ because they don’t care that much. They have little to share in terms of geography, complicated history or trade flows – and they have little to argue about. This is the case of ‘friendhips’ like the Spanish-Russian one. But most ‘friendships’ emerge because of interdependence. German-Russian trade and complicated history are at the basis of the German-Russian ‘friendship’. The need to manage (read reduce) migratory flows from the South to the EU is one of the pillars of the Franco-Italo-Spanish ‘friendship’ with Morocco-Tunisia-Libya. In many ways friends are those who care. But often they care most in ways that are rather unfriendly. (more…)

tocmai revenit din maroc. ECFR scrie mai multe studii despre intreaga vecinatate sudica. colegii mei au fost in egipt si libia, iar eu m-am ales cu cazurile mai usoare – tunisia si maroc. daca nu mergeam la chisinau as fi ajuns si eu in egipt si poate libia… in maroc ne-am intalnit si cu (r)evolutionari, si cu islamisti, si cu guvernul… islamistii sunt curiosi… partie de justice et development – partid islamist legal si oarecum loial regelui marocului (care e descedendent al profetului si ‘commander of the faithful’) cat si miscarea pentru justitie si binefacere – care e interzisa si mai putin loiala regelui. actualmente puterea curtii regale e contestata de o coalitie de islamisti, tineri/facebookeristi/bloggeri/si stangisti. islamistii ne-au povestit timp de 10 minute despre fratia religiilor si cum crestinii coptici ii protejau pe musulmani in timpul rugaciunilor in tahrir, si vice-versa. scriu mai multe bloguri despre asta. iata un prim blog. mai urmeaza altele.

Revolutions and youth movements

One of the main stories of the 2000-2005 wave of revolutions – successful in Serbia, Georgia, Ukraine, and failed in Belarus, Azerbaijan and Egypt – were the existence of organised youth movements with names which were variations on the idea ‘enough is enough’. Otpor in Serbia, Pora in Ukraine, Kmara in Georgia, Kefaya in Egypt, Zubr in Belarus), and Mjaft in Albania became almost household names. However, I have not heard of anything ressembling Kefaya in the recent Egyptian or Tunisian revolutions. These recent revolutions were conspicuous by the absence of well-organised and well-branded youth movements. The revolutions seem to have done well enough without them. (more…)

The revolutionary upheaval in the Southern neighbourhood and the failures of reforms in most of the Eastern neighbourhood are begging for a revised EU approach to the neighbourhood policy (ENP). In March the EU presented some ideas on ‘a partnership for democracy and shared prosperity’ with the Southern Mediterranean. Some time in May the EU will present also a full review of the ENP. A central concept of the updated ENP is the idea of ‘more for more’ – the EU should give more political and financial support to those neighbourhood countries that implement more reforms and are more democratic.

‘More for more’ stands for a more meritocratic ENP. It should lay the basis for proper differentiation between neighbours, not based on geographic criteria, but based on their performance. The concept is also supposed to change the way the EU is spending its money. Currently the EU pre-allocates most of its assistance to specific neighbourhood states (almost irrespective of their reform performance) in 7-years budgetary cycles. ‘More for more’ is supposed to make it easier to shift its more EU assistance from one neighbourhood state to another depending on their reform performance. Overall, the concept the concept of ‘more for more’ is laudable and fair, but also quite slippery. (more…)