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On a recent trip to China, I asked Chinese thinkers and researchers how do they see Europe, Russia, the Putin-Medvedev dynamic and the post-Soviet space. Virtually all were very positive about Russia. Despite a lack of trust between Beijing and Moscow, the relationship seems to be  better than almost any time in modern history – economic exchanges are booming (increased by 43% in 2010 reaching USD 55 bn), and China’s border with Russia is one of China’s most stable. But scratching a bit deeper beyond the surface the picture is unsurprisingly more mixed. And not necessarily reassuring for Russia. As a Chinese put it, the relationship is good because ‘we know that when two tigers fight, both are likely to be wounded, and we want to avoid it’. (more…)

[the first part of some of my notes from a recent research trip to Morocco]

The ‘Arab spring’ has not left Kingdom of Morocco untouched. Protesters across the country demand more limits on royal power and less corruption and clientelism around the palace. Few challenge the monarchy itself, but a wide range of forces demand a system where the king ‘reigns, but does not govern’. King Mohammed VI launched a process of constitutional reforms in an attempt to shore up the monarchy’s legitimacy and be seen as responding to the demands of the ‘Arab spring’. Morocco might not face a revolution, but the road ahead for Morocco might still be quite bumpy.

The political system

Morocco’s political system is a strange-ish hybrid. One the one hand it has a dominant monarchy with strong executive powers. The monarchy dominates political and economic life. The king reigns and governs. Yet, Morocco also has a multi-party system, holds regular elections which are judged as relatively free and fair, and has alternating governments. The parties that win most votes at the election are invited to head the government. But while elections lead to changes of government, the winning parties do not really govern. They might be in government, but they don’t govern; and whereas the political pendulum is swinging once in a while, political power did not. (more…)

The notion of ‘friendship’ in foreign policy is an elusive one. It is often stereotypical, yet publics and policy-makers often think in terms of ‘friendly’ and ‘less friendly’ countries. The notion of ‘friendship’ also often hides pretty unfriendly policies. It is almost conventional wisdom that countries like Germany, France, Spain or Austria are ‘friendly’ to Russia, and countries like Poland or Lithuania are not. Looking at the southern neighbourhood, France, Spain and Italy are key advocates and friends of countries like Morocco, Tunisia etc. Yet, such ‘friendships’ consist of lots of underwater currents. Many ‘friendships’ in form are pretty unfriendly in substance, and they vary hugely from one policy sector to another.

Sometimes, countries are ‘friendly’ because they don’t care that much. They have little to share in terms of geography, complicated history or trade flows – and they have little to argue about. This is the case of ‘friendhips’ like the Spanish-Russian one. But most ‘friendships’ emerge because of interdependence. German-Russian trade and complicated history are at the basis of the German-Russian ‘friendship’. The need to manage (read reduce) migratory flows from the South to the EU is one of the pillars of the Franco-Italo-Spanish ‘friendship’ with Morocco-Tunisia-Libya. In many ways friends are those who care. But often they care most in ways that are rather unfriendly. (more…)

in sfarsit… a aparut raportul ECFR: European and Russian power in the troubled neighbourhood. am inceput sa il scriem prin octombrie.

Ukraine’s economic crisis could have profound (geo)political consequences for European security. A default in Ukraine could lead to higher unemployment, a drastic fall in governance standards, a rise in emigration, organised crime, and an even deeper political crisis. Or these might happen even without a formal default, but with a seriously ill economy for the next few years. A failed economy in Ukraine will hit hard Belarus and Moldova (and Transnistria) putting under strain all of EU’s immediate Eastern neighbours. (more…)

sunt la praga la reuniunea anuala a pasos. o retea de vreo 40 centre de cercetare si ong-urri din europa centrala si de est, caucaz, rusia si asia centrala. sunt membru al consiliului director (board) al pasos. am moderat un panel pe ue-rusia dimineata. seara urmeaza partea cu alegerile catorva noi membriu pentru board, aporobarea bugetului, proiectelor prioritare etc. maine mai e o conferinta organizata de europeum.

si dupa aia cateva intalniri cu cehii in ajunul presdintiei cehe a ue care incepe in ianuarie.

am scris ca zborurile din moldova in UE sunt cu mult mai scumpe decat zborurile din romania si (in masura mai mica) decat in ucraina. din cauza monopolizarii pietei aeriene, si din cauza faptului ca moldova nu doreste sa europenizeze acest sector al economiei participand la spatiul aviatic european comun. am fost pe cateva zile la kiev. mai multe lucruri interesante. unul din ele. ucraina a deschis piata de transport aerian pentru companiile low-budget din UE. wizz air a lansat cateva zboruri interne in aprilie, si din septembrie va lansa cateva rute in UE, inclusiv londra. un zbor kiev-londra-kiev va costa 80-100 euro dus intors cu toate taxele incluse. (more…)

un post care astepta de mai mult timp sa fie scris. dar si un raspuns la apelul lui sandu culiuc de a discuta prioritatile noului guvern. nu este o directie, si nici o prioritate. pur si simplu o idee concreta de actiune care ar putea fi implementata de noul guvern:

Chisinaul mai scump ca New-Yorkul

Moldova doreste mai multi vizitatori straini. turisti sau oameni de afaceri. Pentru asta a eliminat vizele pentru cetatenii UE si SUA, si-a facut publicitate la BBC si organizeaza anual Festivalul Vinului. Aceste initiative sunt binevenite. Dar principalul obstacol pentru atragerea vizitatorilor straini in Moldova sunt preturile la biletele de avioane. Sa zbori de la Bucuresti la Londra, Paris, Berlin, Roma, Bruxelles te poate costa 100-150 euro dus-intors, de la Kiev 250-300 Euro dus-intors, dar de la Chisinau cca 450-500 euro (dus intors). Zborul din capitalele mari europene in Georgia sau Armenia costa cam la fel, desi Caucazul este de doua ori mai departe, iar fluxul de pasageri in UE este mai mic decat cel din Moldova (deci nu este vorba de economie de scara). Astazi un zbor Bruxelles – New-York (dus intors) poate fi mai ieftin cu 20% decat un zbor Bruxelles – Chisinau (dus intors). In interiorul UE zborurile sunt si mai ieftine. Personal, am zburat odata Londra-Belfast cu 6.50 GBP (10 Euro) inclusiv taxele de aeroport cu Ryanair. Astfel de preturi sunt exceptionale, dar cu circa 80-120 de euro in UE poti zbura dus-intors la practic orice destinatie. Si asta tinand cont de faptul ca in Europa salariile pilotilor si a insotitorilor de bord, taxele, si preturile la combustibil sunt mai mari decat in Moldova. (more…)