nicu popescu

(with updates)… I have just returned from Germany from a joint ECFR-Bertelsman event on the “Eastern partnership or Partnership with Russia”. Of course, the answer is with both. No need to spend time on this. But I got a certain sense that the German debate on Russia and the Eastern neighbourhood might be changing. Of course this is only a snapshot and such trends are far from consolidated. And they have yet to trickle down through the German foreign policy machinery, not least in the Brussels committees. But here are some of the interesting nuances I have heard in my convesrsations with a few experts as well as FDP and CDU (the new coalition partners) voices.

On Ukraine

There might be an increasing sense that Ukraine, Moldova, and perhaps Belarus will “of course” join the EU. Though with two caveats:  1) in the long run (defined as 20-30 years), and 2) “this should happen at our own pace, not due to geopolitical considerations”. The language is still more positive than I ever heard in Germany. (more…)

Behind the flow of depressive commentaries related to the appointments of Catherine Ashton and (less so) Herman van Rompuy, there are more EU foreign policy news coming – the announcement of the new Commission’s line-up. One interesting development is the merging of enlargement and neighbourhood portfolios under one Commissioner – Stefan Fule (Czech Republic). A couple of months ago I heard a murmur in Brussels saying that it is way too early to give the enlargement portfolio to a new member state. Apparently, it is not. (I also heard the Czechs would never get a substantial portfolio because of Klaus’ foot-dragging on Lisbon.)

More importantly, I never thought that enlargement-wary EU member states would ever accept the merging of the enlargement and neighbourhood portfolios under one commissioner (though formally, Barroso is in charge of the distribution of portfolios). For many in the EU this would send all the wrong signals to states like Ukraine and Moldova that want to join the EU. (more…)

ieri am prezentat raportul pe politica european de vecinatate la paris. urmeaza lviv, sofia, madrid, berlin si din nou bruxelles. vedeti mai jos cateva reactii la raport:

“Europe has finally recognised the importance of stability in its eastern neighbourhood. This is one of the reasons why the European Union adopted its Eastern Partnership policy, which is the initial, necessary step towards understanding what each Eastern neighbour needs. Now, argues this report, the policy needs to be moved from a neighbourhood relationship to a real partnership.”
Miroslav Lajcak, Foreign Minister of Slovakia

“If the European Union does not come together and forge a new, broader strategy towards the Eastern neighbourhood, it will find itself embroiled in  the region’s severe economic and security crisis. Wilson and Popescu’s report  offers a thorough analysis and is a sobering account of the state of the EU’s relationship with its neighbours to the East.”
Vaira Vike-Freiberga, former President of Latvia (more…)

For almost two decades the driving force of EU foreign policy was the idea of the EU as a transformative power. “Transformation” was achieved by enlarging the union and exporting its acquis, values and prosperity. The EU managed to successfully transform Central and Eastern Europe (though the business is still unfinished) and push the Balkans in the right direction. Then the EU tried to transform the Eastern neighbourhood through a similar policy mix of dialogue, economic assistance and exporting the acquis, though all in reduced doses. (more…)

EUObserver, 22 iunie 2009

The Swedish EU presidency, which starts on 1 July 2009, is getting a lot of advice on what to do during its presidency. But here is one idea more idea for the Swedish EU presidency (contained in our recent ECFR report on the Eastern neighbourhood). The Swedish Presidency should convene a “listening tour” of the Eastern neighbourhood – a Troika visit by the Swedish foreign minister, Javier Solana, the Commissioner for External Relations, and the future Spanish EU presidency to each of the six Eastern neighbours of the EU: Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia). Here is why such a tour is needed and why the Swedish presidency is the best actor to initiate it. (more…)

Complaints about an imbalance in the levels of EU engagement in the Southern neighbourhood compared to the Eastern neighbourhood are wide-spread. The new EU member states like to point to the  fact that EU funding for the Mediterranean neighbours is much bigger than for the Eastern neighbours; and EU diplomatic engagement in the Middle Eastern conflicts (be it the Israeli-Palestine conflict or Lebanon) has been much less shy than in the post-Soviet space. (more…)

oarecum sceptic fata de ideea parteneriatului estic, ministrul de externe andrei stratan declarase acum cateva saptamani ca moldova nu vrea integrare europeana prin ararat. oleg cristal a scris despre acest fapt.  referinta la ararat este surprinzator de corecta si incorecta in acelasi timp.

este incorecta pentru ca geografic vorbind muntele ararat se afla in turcia, la cativa kilometri de hotarul armeniei. totodata, ararat este muntele sfant al armenilor (si muntele pe care a aterizat arca lui noie dupa potop), si probabil referinta la muntele ararat tine mai degraba de armenia.  (iata cateva poze cu muntele ararat pe care le-am facut acum 3 ani in armenia).

dar referinta la ararat este surprinzator de corecta pentru ca sistemul politic din moldova este din ce in ce mai asemanator celui din armenia. cititi pasajul de mai jos:

“The … authorities’ response to the … events has been one-sided. While they have investigated, prosecuted, and convicted dozens of opposition members, sometimes in flawed and politically motivated trials, for organizing the demonstration and participating in violent disorder, they have not prosecuted a single representative of the authorities for excessive use of force. (more…)

Partial ca reactie la acest articol care sugereaza ca Moldova nu ar merita sa fie invitata la summit-ul parteneriatului estic (PE) de la Praga din cauza abuzurilor anti-democratice din Moldova. Gresit. Parteneriatul estic este lansat anume din cauza ca UE are niste vecini problematici si guverne autoritare (cu exceptia Ucrainei). Daca Moldova si vecinii estici ar fi fost state normale, cu un proces gradual de consolidare a democratiei, nu ar fi fost nevoie de Parteneriatul Estic. PE exista ca instrument de transformare a statelor vecine, nu ca o compensatie pentru ca acestea sunt democratice si stabile. (more…)

stiu ca tara arde, dar acest interviu despre parteneriatul estic a aparut inainte ca sa arda tara. pentru Arminfo, agentie din Armenia. mai jos gasiti si versiunea engleza.

‘Восточное партнерство’ поможет странам-участницам данной инициативы в реализации реформ и постепенной интеграции в Европейское сообщество

Интервью АрмИнфо научного консультанта по проблематике постсоветского пространства исследовательского центра Европейского совета по международным отношениям (European Council on Foreign Relations) Нику Попеску (Nicu Popescu)

Евросоюз утвердил программу «Восточное партнерство». Что, на Ваш взгляд, может принести данная инициатива вовлеченным в нее странам? (more…)