nicu popescu

(with updates)… I have just returned from Germany from a joint ECFR-Bertelsman event on the “Eastern partnership or Partnership with Russia”. Of course, the answer is with both. No need to spend time on this. But I got a certain sense that the German debate on Russia and the Eastern neighbourhood might be changing. Of course this is only a snapshot and such trends are far from consolidated. And they have yet to trickle down through the German foreign policy machinery, not least in the Brussels committees. But here are some of the interesting nuances I have heard in my convesrsations with a few experts as well as FDP and CDU (the new coalition partners) voices.

On Ukraine

There might be an increasing sense that Ukraine, Moldova, and perhaps Belarus will “of course” join the EU. Though with two caveats:  1) in the long run (defined as 20-30 years), and 2) “this should happen at our own pace, not due to geopolitical considerations”. The language is still more positive than I ever heard in Germany. (more…)

o escala scurta la berlin ieri. am prezentat raportul pe politica de vecinatate la un eveniment comun organizat cu bertelsmann. interventii interesante din partea a doi parlamentari germani din CDU si FDP (care spre deosebire de parlamentarii din majoritatea celorlalte state chiar au influenta asupra politicii externe). din cate inteleg are loc o discutie ceva mai larga privind redefinirea accentelor din politica externa germana. discutia inca continua, dar am impresia ca fdp (partenerul minor in coalitia de guvernamand, insa liderul fdp westerwelle este noul ministru de externe si vice-cancelar) mult mai pozitiva… gasiti mai jos cateva elemente din discutiile de ieri:

Berlin

CDU

• Of course Ukraine, Moldova and By will be integrated into European structures.
• Is it in our interests to give Siberia to China? We are interested in a strong Russia integrated into European structures. (more…)

Behind the flow of depressive commentaries related to the appointments of Catherine Ashton and (less so) Herman van Rompuy, there are more EU foreign policy news coming – the announcement of the new Commission’s line-up. One interesting development is the merging of enlargement and neighbourhood portfolios under one Commissioner – Stefan Fule (Czech Republic). A couple of months ago I heard a murmur in Brussels saying that it is way too early to give the enlargement portfolio to a new member state. Apparently, it is not. (I also heard the Czechs would never get a substantial portfolio because of Klaus’ foot-dragging on Lisbon.)

More importantly, I never thought that enlargement-wary EU member states would ever accept the merging of the enlargement and neighbourhood portfolios under one commissioner (though formally, Barroso is in charge of the distribution of portfolios). For many in the EU this would send all the wrong signals to states like Ukraine and Moldova that want to join the EU. (more…)

sunt in tailanda de peste doua saptamani. vacanta. in curand revin la regimul de blogging mai mult sau mai putin normal. intre timp iata un articol publicat saptamana trecuta in dzerkalo tyzhnya-zerkalo nedeli in ucraina: Маленька країна чи регіональна держава? pentru cunoscatorii de ucraineana, sau aici si versiunea in rusa. in curand apare si versiunea engleza (si cea originala). (more…)

abia am revenit din africa de sud, careia ii voi dedica un post separat. intre timp – iata un event report de la o masa rotunda la bruxelles despre ucraina. DC21 e un club initiat de cercetatori polonezi din mai multe think-tankuri din bruxelles (ceps, epc, the centre etc) care vor sa creeze o platforma pentru noile state membre ale ue sa promoveze mai intens subiectele de discutie pe care le intereseaza.

Quo Vadis, Ukraine?
The country ahead of the elections

30 September 2009
Event Report

On 30 September Discussion Club 21 (DC21) held its first meeting. The subject of the debate was the political situation in Ukraine ahead of the presidential elections, which are scheduled for January 2010. The meeting began with a short overview of the situation in Ukraine and was followed by three presentations given by the distinguished speakers: Olena Prystayko of EURussia Centre, Nicu Popescu of European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) and Vsevolod Chentsov from the Ukrainian Mission to the EU. (more…)